Identifying Areas at Risk for Undercounting
The Census Bureau and its partners have devoted a lot of energy to identifying areas where people are more likely to be undercounted without special effort. That research is being used by shape the Census Bureau's decisions about where to advertise, place assistance centers, and hire temporary staff. Their analysis can also help local organizations and activists decide where outreach and communications strategies should be targeted. There's solid evidence that targeted outreach can make a difference. The biggest improvement in return rates between the 1990 and 2000 census came in the hardest-to-count areas.
Based on an in-depth analysis of information from the census in 1990 and 2000, the Census Bureau has identified a dozen variables that contribute to a lower rate of returned census questionnaires. Some of these variables are housing-related, such as vacancy rates, percentage of renters, and number of people living in a household. Some are related to economic factors like unemployment, poverty, and public assistance. Others include education and how many households have no adults who understand English well.
Using data from the 2000 census, the Bureau analyzes all these factors and assigns geographical areas a "Hard to Count" score from 0 to 132. Areas with lower scores are likely to have a high return rate and are considered not hard to count. The higher the score, the harder it will be to have a high return rate and get a complete count.
Here's how to look at the Hard to Count (HTC) scores:
60 or less not hard to count
61-70 hard to count
71-76 harder to count
77 or more hardest to count
The Center for Urban Research at the City University of New York has used the Census Bureau's data to create maps of hard-to-count areas within major urban areas. They can give local organizations a way to prioritize activities in 2010.
Included in this section is a listing of states ranked by the number of people who live in areas considered hard to count. You can get other rankings from the Census Project's website, including county-level data. Also included are regional maps showing HTC information.
Local census activists can get more information from the Census Bureau, including an excel file with data that can be used to create maps and reports.
