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Volume 10 Number 4 Continued Debate Over Census 2000: Funding and Sampling
As reported in the last MONITOR, on January 25, 1999, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that the federal Census Act of 1976 prevents the Census Bureau from using modern scientific sampling to determine the population for purposes of congressional apportionment- the division of congressional seats among the states. At the same time, the decision did not prevent the use of scientific sampling to correct the undercount for other purposes, such as legislative redistricting- the division of legislative (state and local) and non-legislative (e.g. school board) districts within a state, and the distribution of billions of dollars in federal monies. In fact the decision suggests that the law may require the use of the scientific sampling for these purposes. In response to the Supreme Court's decision, Census Bureau Director Kenneth Prewitt unveiled a revised plan for the 2000 census in early February. The plan would produce the set of state population totals needed for apportioning the 435 seats in Congress among the 50 states based on old direct counting methods. Second, the Bureau will conduct an Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation, or ACE, of 300,000 households to measure the accuracy of the initial count and provide the basis for correcting any undercounts and overcounts. The corrected or second set of numbers will be available for geographic areas as small as census blocks by April 1, 2001, the legal deadline for the Bureau to transmit detailed counts to the state legislatures for the redistricting process.
Despite an "operationally robust plan," the Census Bureau believes that the numbers produced for congressional apportionment (numbers not corrected with scientific sampling) "are not likely to be an improvement on the 1990 accuracy levels." Dr. Prewitt cited busy or transient lifestyles, irregular housing, language barriers, fear of government officials by immigrants, and decreased civic engagement as factors that make it harder to count accurately.
Reaction to Revised Census Bureau Plan
Response to the revised plan for Census 2000 was mixed, drawing harsh criticism from sampling opponents and praise from its advocates. House Census Subcommittee Chairman Dan Miller (R-FL) said the publication of two sets of census numbers will "confuse and confound the American people." The chairman suggested that the "second, manipulated number[s]' would trigger increased litigation."
Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), the subcommittee's ranking Democrat, praised the Bureau for "a blueprint for obtaining the most accurate count possible" in 2000. She pointed out that the Supreme Court ruling prohibited scientific sampling only for apportionment but required the use of scientific methods for all other purposes if the Bureau considered it feasible.
  
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