What the Experts Say

Census 2000 Education Kit

What the Experts Say

Despite the disagreement in Congress over the proposed use of scientific sampling methods to complete and correct the population count in the 2000 Census, the scientific methods have the endorsement of virtually the entire professional demographic and statistical community. Every panel of experts that has closely reviewed the proposed use of scientific methods in the 2000 Census has endorsed the plan. Here is what expert and independent observers have said about the Census Bureau's plan for 2000

"It is fruitless to continue trying to count every last person with traditional Census methods of physical enumeration...[P]hysical enumeration or pure `counting' has been pushed well beyond the point at which it adds to the overall accuracy of the Census...Techniques of statistical estimation can be used, in combination with the mail questionnaire and reduced scale of follow-up of non-respondents, to produce a better Census at reduced costs."
- Report of the Panel on Census Requirements in the Year 2000 and Beyond, Committee on National Statistics, National Academy of Sciences, 1995.

The General Accounting Office is "encouraged that the Bureau has decided to sample those households failing to respond to Census questionnaires rather than a 100 percent follow-up as it has in the past...sampling households that fail to respond to questionnaires produces substantial cost savings and should improve final data quality."
- U.S. General Accounting Office, October 1995.

"The Census Bureau had adopted a number of innovations to address the problems of past Censuses - declining accuracy and rising costs. One innovation, which we fully support, is the use of statistical sampling for non-response follow-up."
- Honorable Frank DeGeorge, Inspector General, U.S. Department of Commerce, October 1995.

"Because sampling potentially can increase the accuracy of the count while reducing the costs, the Census Bureau has responded to the Congressional mandate by investigating the increased use of sampling...We endorse the use of sampling for these purposes; it is consistent with the best statistical practice."
- Report of the Blue Ribbon Panel on the Census, American Statistical Association, September 1996.

"The planned and tested statistical innovations [in the Census]...have the overwhelming support of members of the scientific community who have carefully reviewed and considered them. If their use is severely limited or prohibited, the 2000 Census planning process will be obstructed, and the result could be a failed Census."
- Douglass S. Massey, President, Population Association of America, June 1996.

"An effort to conduct a Census in 2000 using 1990 methods - this is, attempting to the fullest extent to physically enumerate every household, with the funding levels that now seem probable - will likely result in a Census of substantially lower quality than previous Censuses."
- Interim Report on Sampling of the Panel to Evaluate Alternative Census Methodologies, Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council, June 1996.

"If conducting the most accurate Census possible is a national goal for 2000, the ICM - the 750,000-household independent survey planned for use in 2000 - is the only proven method to correct the greatest obstacle to an accurate count coverage bias...Census results seen as inaccurate or unfair could lead to catastrophic political and practical fallout."
- Honorable Frank DeGeorge, Inspector General, U.S. Department of Commerce, January 1997.

"Changing, updating, and adapting the Census methods is a proven and desirable course of action. Change is not the enemy of an accurate and useful Census; rather, not changing methods as the United States changes would inevitably result in a seriously degraded Census."
- Preparing for the 2000 Census Interim Report II" of the Panel to Evaluate Alternative Census Methodologies, National Research Council, June 1997.

"[O]ur social and economic development as a nation will be served best by striving for the most accurate Census possible. In every decade, that will be one which combines the best techniques for direct enumeration with the best known technology for sampling and estimating the unenumerated."
- Dr. Barbara Bryant, Director of the Census Bureau under Former President Bush in a letter written to House Speaker Gingrich, May 1997.

"Prohibiting the use of sampling will also prevent the Census bureau from correcting millions of errors in the count. In 1990 ten million people were missed and six million people were counted twice. The Census undercount is not just an urban issue. One-third of those missed in 1990 lived in rural areas, most of them poor and white".
- Consortium of Social Science Associations (COSSA) in a letter to the United States Senate, May 5, 1997.

"It is unwise to prevent the use of `statistical sampling' which is a long established and fundamental component of statistical science...it is essential to obtain as accurate a measure as is possible using the best statistical tools available at the time of the Census. The environment and methodologies are different today from those 200 years ago, and they will be different again in the 21st Century. We urge you to support the latest scientific methods to assure that the Census 2000 results are the best current knowledge science can provide."
- American Statistical Association in a letter to Congress, June 13, 1997.

"...the Academy Panel on Requirements found that scientific sampling, both for non-response follow-up and to improve accuracy would both increase accuracy and lower costs. That panel concluded that scientific sampling was not just a solution to the cost and accuracy problems, it was the only solution."
- The Academy Panel on Requirements, Committee on National Statistics, National Academy of Sciences.

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